2010 Score Card

Yeah, yeah, we know we have to do our score card for 2010.  And, we know we didn't do as well this year as we did last year.  But, you take the bad with the good.  So, we'll own our results proudly.  As we look back, 2010 turned out to be the year of voter outrage, Chilean miners, LeBron James, and huge unemployment.  We did predict some of that, but let's take a closer look and see exactly where our inexpert predictions landed.

Here is what we predicted, along with the results:

It's January 1, 2010.  As per our long-standing, two-year tradition, it's time to make some predictions about the year to come.  As we disclaimed last year, we don't really know if these things will happen, but given our 7.5 out of 10 track record from our 2009 Score Card, it's possible at least 75% of the following will come true.

1.  Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Arizona, will step down, return to Arizona, and run for Senate against four-term Senator and former GOP Presidential Nominee, John McCain (R-AZ).

FALSE.  Secretary Napolitano stayed in Washington and completely ignored the Senate race in Arizona.  Probably just as well since Arizona voters sent Senator McCain (R-AZ) back to the Senate for a fifth term in November.

2.  The decline in the commercial real estate market in 2009 will turn out to be just the beginning of the devastation for commercial properties, as commercial tenants fail and major commercial developers declare bankruptcy.

TRUE.  Developers like Trevor Davis (individual), General Growth Properties  (Public co), and First UAE (international) filed for bankruptcy protection leaving room for companies like Google and Go Daddy to pick up commercial properties at bargain basement prices.

3. The stock market will dip significantly again, trending toward 8,000, before it begins to regain lost ground.

TRUE/FALSE.  We get half a point here.  The Dow started the year at about 10,500.  There was a huge market dip in July, bottoming out at around 9,600, but not quite the 8,000 we predicted.  The market then regained all of its lost ground to close the year near 11,500

4. The "call it twenty-ten" movement will catch on and, by the end of the year, 2010 will be ubiquitously referred to as "twenty-ten" rather than "two-thousand-ten" or "oh-ten." As a side note, oh-ten would make the year 20,010, which is a really long time from now.

TRUE.  While we don't know if the use of the "twenty-ten" reference is ubiquitous, the National Association of Good Grammar did step in and decree that (2010) should officially be pronounced "twenty-ten," and all subsequent years should be pronounced as "twenty-eleven," "twenty-twelve," and so on.

5. Voters will declare the 2010 elections a time for new representation in Washington, which means the Republicans will gain significantly in both the House and the Senate, as incumbents are run out of office by the dozens.

TRUE.  This was perhaps our most accurate prediction of the year.  The voter backlash during the 2010 mid-term elections was felt across the entire political spectrum.  One bumper sticker we saw said "Re-elect No One."  That just about summed up the result of the election, which President Obama referred to by its technical definition:  "a schellacking."

6. Wealthy families all over the country will take in and provide for needy kids as Baltimore Ravens star, Michael Oher's, story inspires people to reach out and care for kids who would benefit from having a family and stability in their lives.  If you aren't familiar with his story, see the movie Blind Side, which tells the true story of the Tuohys, the Memphis family who adopted Oher when he was in high school.

FALSE.  This could be true, but we have no way to prove it, so we wont take a point on this one.

7. Health Care Reform will stall as the discussion between the House and the Senate devloves into an old-fashioned, knock-down, drag-out debate over abortion.

TRUE/FALSE.  One of the biggest victories thus far for the Obama Administration, the Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act became law on March 23.  Although there was an old-fashioned, knock-down, drag-out debate over abortion, led by our good friend, Congressman Bart Stupak (D-MI), it wasn't enough to stall the passage of the legislation.

8. More and more Americans will begin to stock pile ammunition, guns, food, and water as concerns over the decline in the social fabric lead citizens to a survivalist mentality, where they believe they have to take basic survival matters into their own hands.  This will make already hard-to-find ammunition and guns virtually impossible to buy.

TRUE.  Ammunition and guns became even more difficult to find as gun owners focused on government restrictions.

9.Because we still believe we were right on this one, but just slightly off on the timing, we are repeating this 2009 prediction: Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen will regret firing Head Coach Mike Shanahanwhen Shanahan is picked up by another NFL team, beats the Broncos, andmakes it to the playoffs in his first year with his new team.

FALSE.   While Mike Shanahan did get picked up by the Washington Redskins, they neither played the Broncos, nor made the playoffs.  So, we were wrong on both accounts here.  We still believe Pat Bowlen secretly regrets firing Coach Shanahan, however.

10. Churches and other places of worship will see increased attendance as people seek solace from the economy (which will continue to decline) and unemployment (which will continue to increase). 

TRUE.  According to research organization, Gallup, Americans' self-reported church attendance inched up somewhat in 2010.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statictics, the seasonal unemployment rate at the end of November was 9.8%, up slightly from 9.7% in January.

Bottom line: 6 out of 10, with partial credit for 7 out of 10 predictions.  Turns out when you only make 10 predictions, missing one more than the year before takes your accuracy percentage from 75% to 60% faster than you can say, "Happy New Year!"

Stay tuned for predictions for 2011.  Or should we say, "twenty-eleven?"

 

What did you think of this article?




Trackbacks
  • No trackbacks exist for this post.
Comments
Page: 1 of 1
Page: 1 of 1
Leave a comment

Submitted comments are subject to moderation before being displayed.

 Name (required)

 Email (will not be published) (required)

 Website

Your comment is 0 characters limited to 3000 characters.